I know I’m not alone in feeling like the winter of 2026 was more brutal than normal. Sure, it was great for ice fishermen, but open-water anglers throughout much of the country didn’t have a lot of options given the extremely low temperatures. Even major rivers that rarely lock up froze solid from bank to bank. But now it’s March and there is hope.
Moving-water addicts like me are itching to break the ice — literally and figuratively — for trout, smallmouths, muskies, and walleyes, but before it’s full-blown spring we must get through that odd time when a snowy ground and those first warm days overlap. It can be a tricky time to fish, but according to my friend and Minnesota-based environmental scientist, Tyler Winter, if you understand exactly how moving water warms and cools, you’ll find the fish faster. Here’s the breakdown from the guy who monitors the quality of moving water 365 days a year to make his living.
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The Pre-Melt
Here’s the scenario. You can finally feel the warm sun on your face, but the ground is still covered with snow and ice. According to Winter, these are some of the best days to target fish in moving water — assuming you have an option that’s open. Often, that’s smaller streams, as they tend to thaw out quicker. Winter says sunny days that are comfortable enough for you to be outside but not warm enough to rapidly melt the snow on the ground are ideal.
“If you step outside and all you hear is dripping water from your roof or gutters, that’s not what you want,” he says. “Melting snow is going to raise water levels quickly, but also make them much colder than they were before the warm-up. Fish like consistent temperatures, so while a bump in flow might look good, fish might not bite if the water temperature is plummeting.”
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Conversely, Winter says that if there’s little or no snow melt, the sun alone can warm a smaller body of moving water as much as a degree-and-a-half per hour. Understanding this also helps with timing. If you’re planning to fish, sleep in and wait until the afternoon, because the water is always going to be the coldest at dawn. A bump of just a few degrees in a day can turn lockjawed fish into eating machines.
The Post-Melt
All good things happen at 50 degrees. Bait and gamefish start moving and migrating, and the season really kicks into high gear once that temperature is maintained during the overnight hours. In many regions, of course, that might not happen in March. If you monitored temperature gauges, you’ll see dips and spikes throughout the day, especially once the snow and ice have fully melted. But if you’re looking for the warmest water you can find, Winter has a trick.
“A small stream will warm faster than a big river, but it’ll also cool back down much faster as snow melts or even just during the cold nights,” he says. “But assuming you know where small and big waters meet, you can use this to your advantage. If the water temperature dropped in a small stream, fish the bigger river, because that won’t cool as quickly.”
On the flip side, if the main river is frigid, there’s a good chance a smaller tributary will be warmer during the day. In this case, Winter focuses his efforts at the mouths of small streams where they enter larger rivers. Even if the water from the small tributary is just a degree warmer, main-river fish will congregate here.
Get En-Gauged
According to Winter, there is no more important tool to carry in the early season than a thermometer. Sure, you can buy fancy “fishing” thermometers, but a cheap meat thermometer will also do the job. Anglers might be surprised to learn how much water temperatures can vary by a degree or two within a short distance, and how much monitoring directly at your fishing location over the course of a season can teach you about the activity of the fish. Of course, if you don’t want to take your own readings, online USGS water gauges are great tools, even if your favorite river or stream doesn’t have one.
“If the moving water you like to fish doesn’t have a gauge, find the closest similar body of water that does,” says Winter. “Though they might not be identical in true temperature, you can assume they’re pretty close.”
Check often and patterns will emerge that will further help you determine when to give the river a shot. Note the timing of peak high temperatures, and watch for the peaks and valleys in the data to get closer together. Before you know it, they’ll begin to even out and then it’s just (finally) spring.
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